Sports Betting

This has kept me awake all night and the more I've looked into it the more the numbers work themselves out. At the end of the day I have proved my theory time and time again, just not put any money into action just yet but by the end of the week I hope to start.

Basic theory is....

There are lots of bookmakers all giving slightly different prices on the outcome of sporting events. Take for example one I worked out this morning:

Cyprus U19 v Hungary U19. £100 to spend, no more.
Bet £16.07 on Cyprus to win with Bet365 @ 7.5 = £120.52
Bet £25.38 on the draw with Bet365 @ 4.75 = £120.55
Bet £58.53 on Hungary to win with 12bet.com @ 2.06 = £120.57

Thats the full £100 (or £99.98) spread over 3 bets.

Minus the original £100 I started with and I get £20.52 minimum without any risk, if either team win I get about £20 even if they both draw I get about £20.

Of course I get the original £100 back but I also get 20% of the original money back on top. So I start with £100 and end with £120 no matter what happens. (sorry for repeating myself if something sounds too good to be true it usually is and I've been trying to pick holes in it all night!)

These bets happen pretty infrequently and odds can change in a matter of mins, the closer the event is to kick off the closer the odds become and the less % profit you might expect to get back.

However the bets are out there, I have a bonus being paid to me soon and have decided to give it a go. Now I am not one to take risks and I would check something like this at least 100 times before committing any money to it! Hence the bags under the eyes, the 8th cup of coffee and the cats wondering whats going on...

As a "new customer" I also qualify for the "deposit x amount get x amount free" promotions quite a few of the bookmakers offer. I also have a cash back card that gives me 3% cash back up to £100 per year which is still £100 in my pocket and not the banks...

I'm working on a bet at the moment but still have to work out the percentages and see if it works itself out but it could be a big one, more that 20% return, will post it up if it works out, It will be correct at the time of posting but odds do change, its the nature of the beast and so if the numbers are different when you open up their webpage then be aware that you wont get the numbers quoted here, you might even lose out. If in doubt pull out....

We're all adults we all take responsibility for our actions and for gods sake don't risk anything if you're not comfortable with it.

Onwards to the Christmas fund!

Just check that you can actually get the money in your hand right away.
Some of these companies make you open an account and you can't actually get money back out until you have accumulated a certain substantial amount.

Yes, a lot of the "we'll put in x amount if you put in x amount" offers require you to use their money in a betting situation before you can draw it out. In this case thats fine as any money lost on one site just means you gain it on another site.

I have been trying to find its faults all night.

Regarding the introductory offers they probably work the same way as the poker sites in that you have to make a certain amount of playing points before the offer bonus is with drawable in the vast majority of cases most people will have lost more than the bonus before this happens.
The only other advice I offer is although from time to time you can take advantage of these situations unless you are certain you have the willpower not to get drawn in to internet gambling further is steer clear altogether.

If you're convinced you can make money, then why not do it ona small scale first and test the propsal in real life. If it falls apart you've only lost a small amount and learned something. If it works...

Always remember that bookmaking is one of the most profitable businesses around.

Yea, £100 is my limit to start with, I can re invest if I win but will only add to it if it proves to be a money maker, ie success rate of 100% over the course of 15-20 bets.

Steaua Bucharest-Molde

£80.53 on Bucharest to win @ 1.33 gives £107.33
http://betway.com/sports-betting

£9.74 on Draw @ 11 gives £107.33
http://sports.betfair.com/?ti=1&inPlay=true&tmi=26909879&ex=1&origin=LHMA

£9.74 on Molde to win @ 11 gives £107.33
http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?affiliate=365_019718&cb=1088153282

£100 split between the 3 gives £107.13

£7.13 profit.

Would have been more but the game is today and the odds have changed in the past hour, still it proves the rule.

Macedonia U19 - Bosnia and Herzegovina U19

£24.89 on Macedonia to win @ 10.50 = £261
http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?affiliate=365_056634&cb=10881627226

£55.01 on Draw or win for Macedonia @ 4.75 = £261
http://betcityru.com/

£ 20.10 on Bosnia to win @ 13.00 = £261
http://www.tobet.com/selection?cmd=choose&category_id=50000011016

Lucrative!

Profit =£161

Tennis:
Gonzalez Alejandro - Thiago Alves

£46.77 on Gonzalez Alejandro to win @ 3.30 = £154
https://www.unibet.co.uk/betting/grid/all-football/1000093190.odds

£56.33 on Thiago Alves to win @ 2.90 = £154
https://bets.fonbet.com/bets/?locale=en

Profit of £54

Theoretically brilliant Daz. Good luck. I'm always inclined to believe there's a catch somewhere though. :dry:

Yea I'm waiting for the catch, only looking at odds at the moment not put anything down but will over the weekend.
Not a get rich quick scheme by any means and it requires quick hands to get the money down before odds change but still, a little profit on every transaction £20 or so and I'll be happy.
The maths is sound, the theory works I should only fail to make money on a transaction through human error, ie my own error. Even a profit of £5 is still tax free money in my pocket.

Beats stalking people on Facebook in the evenings :oops:

Like you, I have immediately tried to find a flaw in this system and have sat down with a notepad and pencil and can confirm, after an hour of racking my brain, that the numbers do indeed add up... I would ignore the introductory rates with online bookmakers as theres often a win x before withdraw or similar catch, keeping it to just your money invested on the right bets is, at least from what I can see, problem free.

Now the question here is, have you got a formula to work out which events the bets can be non-loss or are you genuinly just working them out event by event?